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Investment BlogTag: Stocks - fundamental analysisTattelecom – Russian Value Trap with 80% upsideDate: 23 Mar 2013Tattelecom (JCS Tattelecom, TTLK): fixed line telecom operator in Russia. Fundamentals are appealing:
1. Revenue forecast – below inflation growth from fixed line telephony and broadband internetTattelecom is a fixed line telecom provider in Tatarstan – one of Russia’s regions with 3.8m population and 75.9% urban citizens.Tattelecom on 27 Apr 2012 expanded to mobile market: it became an MVNO using infrastructure of Smarts – mobile operator from Samara. As Tattelecom is just at the beginning of its way to mobile, it’s difficult to estimate mobile influence on revenue, margin and CAPEX. In this analysis - it’s assumed that the mobile segment will generate average return on capital - mobile revenue and related CAPEX are not modeled 1.1 Fixed line telephony market – slow ARPU growth with slow subscribers declineTattelecom was formed as a fixed line telephony operator and continues in this way: 54% of 2011 revenue came from fixed line telephony. Fixed line telephony is a declining market by number of subscribers. How fast will the decline happen and will it be compensated by ARPU growth?To analyze that I looked at fixed line telephony data for the biggest telecom operators WW. They usually have dominating market shares in their respective countries and thus changes in their revenue, subscribers and ARPU approximate market behavior. Fixed line telephony subscribers, APRU and revenue change for top operators WW Source: Capital IQ Note: the difference between the speeds of subscriber decline for Business and Residential segments are not very different for benchmarks: 1-2%, so the difference in the mix doesn’t cause material differences between companies. The best and the only Russian benchmark for regional fixed line telecom services is Rostelecom. Its data shows accelerating decline speeds in number of subscribers. Rostelecom fixed line telephony: subscribers and ARPU growth Source: Rostelecom Rostelecom – fast ARPU growth with fast subscribers decline strategy:
Subscribers
1.2 Fixed broadband internet market – Tatarstan is ~4.5 years behind developed European countriesBroadband internet is rapidly developing in Tatarstan – penetration is only 51%. The question is when this growth will stop.Fixed broadband penetration in Tatarstan - estimation To analyse this I looked at the history of key European markets. Source: World Bank, Eurostat Based on the above data, I assume that Tatarstan is 4.5 years behind developed European markets and forecast subscriber growth as an average for two relevant years from the benchmark. For example, 2012 growth rate is an average for 2007 and 2008 growth rates. Fixed Broadband penetration in Tatarstan - forecast The real rate may be slower: mobile broadband and Smartphone penetrations are higher now than they were in Europe 4.5 years ago which provides considerable competition for fixed broadband. Additional data point can be found for other regions for residential broadband internet (source: AC&C): - Russian market grew 15% in Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 - Moscow (a saturated one with good organic growth prospects) grew 4% in Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 Russia residential broadband subscribers growth Source: AC&C Tattelecom fixed broadband ARPU forecasted as a slow 2% decline in 2012-2014 and stabilization to 0% since 2016 as it happened in Moscow. 1.3 Revenue forecast – from 3.7% growth in 2012 to 0.1% in 2017For both segments I assume based on historical data that Tattelecom’s market share will remain constant.Tattelecom revenue forecast 2. EBITDA Margin – stable, no reasons to believe in improvementsTattelecom EBITDA margin (37.6% in 2011) is above average among WW fixed line telecom providers, but is almost the lowest among cable operators in Europe and US. I believe there is a clear potential to grow EBITDA margin:- Ziggo while run by PE owners achieved 56% - Rostelecom showed 38.4% in 2010, 39.5% in 2011 At the same time, there are no signs from Tattelecom management that they have abilities, desire and plans to do that. Tattelecom EBITDA margin is forecasted at the same level as in 2011: 37.6% Source: Capital IQ EBITDA Margin of top worldwide cable operators Source: HSBS, Ziggo, 1 May 2012 3. CAPEX – assumed at 20-22% of revenueAverage CAPEX as % of Revenue was at 23% for 2008-2012 while average data for WW comparable companies suggests 16%. 2012 showed 22% based on RAS accounting.High CAPEX were probably attributed to the historical fast growth in broadband internet which required a lot of upfront investments. As it was assumed before, active growth in broadband penetration will continue for 2013 and 2014. I forecast CAPEX/Revenue at 22% for 2013 and 2014 (in line with 22% in 2012) and then 20%. 4. DCF Valuation: 80% upsideDCF valuation is done for 01.01.2013.Tattelecom DCF valuation Tattelecom DCF valuation sensitivity Potential upsides for DCF: + Slower decline of fixed line telecom subscribers + Broadband internet growth faster than expected - Deterioration in EBITDA margin due to wages inflation and not enough optimization 5. Russian and Global comparables: 130-180% upsideThe most relevant comps for Tattelecom are Russian telecom companies as Russian stock market overall has a big “country risk” discount.By any of the 3 multiples Tattelecom has 130% growth potential, or more than two times cheaper. For comparison below is a list of global benchmarks (except one outlier with 56x). The median is 5.9x which means that Tattelecom has 180% growth potential. 6. Value realization scenarios: probability is unclearHow could this huge value upside be realized? Realistically, only through change of control in the following scenarios:
7. Conclusion: it’s a convertible bondIn a nutshell we have:+ DCF upside is 80%. Comps assume 130-180% ? Unclear prospects for value realization This makes this stock look like a convertible bond: there are no reasons for value decline and there is a small probability for big upside in case of change of control event. Abrau Durso – 48% upside with "Champagne"Date: 08 Jun 2012Abrau Durso (JSC Abrau Durso, MICEX:ABRD) started to trade at MICEX-RTS on 11 April 2012 to "test" investor interest. So, let's test our interest. The intrigue of the stock is that it's very cheap comparable to multiples from other emerging markets… except Russia. EV/2011E EBITDA = 5.9x What about DCF valuation? My target price is 8,167 RUB which is 48% to 08.06.2012 close price at 5,501 RUB. 1. Russian Vine Market and RevenueWe will use the following model: Revenue = Volume * PriceAssumed macro context: slowdown of Russian GDP growth from ~7% in 2001-2007 to ~4% in 2011-2016 1.1 Russian sparkling vine marketIn April 2012 presentation the company makes the claim that wine market in Russia will grow fast to catch up with European penetration. I don't support this.Is there potential fast growth in vine consumption in Russia? No, but there is potential upside The claims that it would grow with GDP to catch up with developed European countries is questionable:
A lot of researchers assume an upside which is a good upside to have for a stock. This is one of the best papers on the topic: http://www.sostav.ru/articles/2003/02/03/prod030203/ Is there potential fast growth in penetration of sparkling vines to vine market? No 1) Russia already has the 2nd highest penetration among ~50 top countries. 2) Penetration of sparkling vines to wines showed no particular trend since 2006 So, expected growth of Russian sparkling wine market is well defined by its history: 2.2% 1.2 Abrau Durso Market shareAbrau Durso was aggressively gaining market share in 2008, 2010, 2011. Loss of market share in 2009 is well explained with 31% price increase vs. 17% CAGR in 2006-2008 and 14% CAGR in 2009-2011The company didn't do any acquisition in 2009-2010 of production assets: the only acquisition was the following: "On 22 May 2009 the Group acquired 100% of the trading company LLC Atrium with the aim to create the distribution network within the Group." I believe that the company will continue market share growth at 13% rate (CAGR 2006-2011): with 2011 market share of 4.9% there is enough space to grow. 1.3 Abrau Durso Price increasePrice increase was the biggest driver of revenue in Abrau Durso business model: prices grew at 18.6% CAGR in 2006-2011.Part of this price increase was driven by growing penetration of the more expensive Classical champaign: it contributed 2.5% to price CAGR in 2009-2011. This contribution is forecasted to decrease to 1.3% in 2011-2014. Note: there is an inconsistency in share of classical champaign at page 15 of the presentation and operational report (http://abraudurso.ru/upload/news/OperateReport5th.xls) Price CAGR decreased from 17% before 2008 crisis to 14% after (-3% change). It's defined by several effects: inflation, duties, currency rates and share of imported vs. local wines. The last one is hard to take into account due to lack of data. I would expect price growth to experience the same slowdown in the coming years due to increased competition. Price CAGR forecast 2011-2016: 10% (11% rate before taking into account effect of slower growth of Classical champaign or 10% after) 1.4 Revenue forecastVolume growth: 2% + 13% = 15%Price growth: 10% Revenue growth: 25% Company's forecast: 34m bottles in 2015, which is 21% CAGR 2. EBITDAIn 2010 Gross Margin showed improvement, but SG&A increased due to G&A expenses growth. In 2011 EBITDA margin increased on 5.3% which is quite big and is potentially caused by preparation to IPO. Unfortunately there is no explanation for this change. Also, 2011 EBITDA margin is already on high levels – 32.6%.To base projections on 2009-2010 data where all costs splits are provided, it's assumed:
3. FCF3.1 Working capital (WC)The company showed good progress in 2010 vs. 2011 in improving its working capital components. Remy Cointreau shows that turnover of Receivables and Payables can achieve much more attractive levels.WC projections assume 1% p.a. decrease in Inventories + Receivables turnover as % of revenue and 1% p.a. increase in Trade and other payables turnover as % of COGS. 3.2 CAPEX2010 CAPEX as % of next year revenue change is 22%. For CAPEX forecast 30% is used.4. DCF ValuationIFRS report is available only for 2010, and debt and cash are given at the end for 2010. So all valuation will be done for the end of 2011, including FCFF for 2011 at 0% discount rate.4.1 Acquisition of CJSC Abrau-DursoOne of the biggest complications of DCF valuation is acquisition of 41.2% of CJSC Abrau Durso on 22.07.2011 (http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/event.aspx?EventId=lVzZvlVYn0a0VuIkxKrhKQ-B-B)."As a result of this transaction the Group’s share in CJSC "Abrau-Durso", JSC "Wine atelier Abrau-Durso", Fund for the revival of traditions of winemaking "Heritage of Abrau-Durso", "Service Abrau-Durso Limited", LLC "Abrau-Durso territory", Vine Yards Abrau-Durso Limited, LLC Abrau-Durso Public Utilities, CJSC Vino ER EF, LLC Center of Wine Tourism Abrau-Durso increased to 100%." According to the prospect dated 18.11.2011, the company owns 99.999%-100% in all dependent companies. As no major M&A transactions happened since that time non-controlling interest is effectively 0 as of now. How to value this non-controlling interest at the end of 2010? To answer this question let's see how that deal was financed:
4.2 DCF Valuation5. ConclusionAt current assumptions upside is 48%. Together with comparables valuation (EV/EBITDA 2011E at 5.3x vs. 8.4x in developed and 14.1x in developing markets) this makes the stock very attractive.Upsides
EPAM – another overpriced technology IPO?Date: 06 Feb 2012 23:00EPAM IPO is scheduled for 7 February 2012 with the IPO price range at $16-18. The result of my DCF model is $12.2 which is -24% of the lower IPO border. Here is the prospectus: EPAM IPO S-1 Amendment No. 6 Since IPO of Yandex on 24 May 2011 on NASDAQ its shares fell ~45% while NASDAQ index grew on ~5% during the same period of time. EPAM is another technology company from CIS which is about to be sold on an IPO. Is IPO price too high and the risk of Yandex fate is too probable? Here is a brief look at EPAM DCF valuation. Revenues1) What is sustainable revenue growth rate?Analysis of 2007-2010 growth rates shows that this is correlated to the underlying GDP growth in the countries of sales. Below is the chart showing dependency of EPAM. Using IMF GDP forecasts as of 24 Jan 2012 and linear trend, around 50% growth for 2011-2013 should be forecasted. So there are no macro risks for revenue growth slowdown. How sustainable is fast growth rate at 50%? Growth in 2010 was 47.9%, 1H 2011 was 66%, and growth in 9m 2011 was 59%. Those growth numbers in 2010 and 2011 are "pre-IPO" revenue increases. 2012 growth should be less. I keep it at 15% and then increase it to 30% in 2013-2016. EBIT1) EBIT should contain two adjustments:- Foreign exchange loss – it's a natural part of this business since 2007 + Stock based compensation, as it is not a cash expense and later on we will add to the number of shares outstanding effects from the options outstanding calculated using treasury stock method 2) Adjusted EBIT margin jumps from 5.7% in 2008 to 11.2% in 2009 to 15.1% in 2010 to 17.5% in 2011. While I believe in the first two steps, the last two are clear "Pre-IPO" squeezes. It can be proved by a good benchmarking. In this fast analysis I looked at Accenture: Accenture (NYSE:ACN) EBIT Margin
Average for EPAM for 2009-2010 is 13.2%. I assume that the company will return to this level in two years. Tax ratesHow probable is that Belarus, Hungry and Russia will continue to give the company attractive tax breaks at current level? We would assume that as soon as the company becomes bigger and public, it will be harder to get tax benefits at the same level as a % of revenue, so it's assumed that effective tax rate will go to 25%.Other value drivers1) One of the risks stated at prospectus is: "Our agreement with one of our largest clients gives it the option to assume the operations of one of our offshore development centers, and the exercise of that option could result in a loss of future revenues and adversely affect our results of operations."So, part of one of the offshore development centers was financed by a client and the clients can take this part and pay book value for the rest. Let's assume that if the client decides to execute this option, he will take only the part financed by him. How big is the probability that it would happen? There is no information to judge, so it's 50%. When can it happen? Any time between today and December 2014, so on average it would happen in 2013. How to estimate the effect on EPAM operations? EPAM will get "de minimis price" for transferring of the offshore development center, so this will be effectively a loss of 6.1% of Revenue from 2013 with 50% probability. 2) Sell off stocks and execution of options by employees after lock-up period is over in 6m (beginning of July 2012) This company was founded in 1993. Some of the people in the management team were waiting to cash out for 5, 10 or almost 20 years. According to the prospectus, nobody from individual or institutional owners are selling more than 18%. There is a considerable risk that they will start selling 6 months after the IPO. ConclusionThe key questions are: in what revenue growth do you believe and what EBIT margin will the company manage to maintain? Both of them will not maintain current levels in the coming 5 years: one of them will be sacrificed to another.What happens with stock prices of technology companies from emerging markets oversold during the IPO? They fall. Take a look at Yandex again. EPAM DCF ModelPlatforma Utinet.ru IPO. 110x EV/EBITDA, 157x P/E – Finam's valuation tricksDate: 20 Jul 2011 19:57
Key valuation assumption: revenue growth projections from Finam are correct. If they are decreased, valuation will be much lower. Today (20.07.2011) Finam did an IPO of JCS Platforma Utinet.ru. This is a good event from several dimensions:
Investor Presentation, 2009&2010 IFRS reports and Finam research report are here: http://www.finam.ru/investments/promo00008/default.asp This research report is awesome. Just take a look at the chart below. Finam recommends investing in Uninet.ru with a valuation in mind of 110x EV/EBITDA and 157x P/E:
1. EBITDA forecastRevenue grows at 70% CAGR in 2011-2015. It's too questionable, but let's assumes that this is a good enough forecast. The company goes from -5% EBITDA margin in 2009 to 10% in 2015. Why?General comment: the company cut many expenses in 2010 to get a high EBITDA in 2010 (pre-IPO year), so I almost don't take 2010 numbers into account as this level of costs is obviously pre-IPO manipulation and is not sustainable. 1.1 Gross MarginIf we adjust for high Gross Margin for "Platforma" business (assuming 30% in 2010 and taking 57% in 2015 from Finam report), we will get that Gross margin for own trading business grows from 7%, 5% and 10% in 2008-2010 to 13% in 2015. The growth of discounts from laptop distributors should explain this growth. But there are three counter arguments:
1.2 Marketing ExpensesBenchmarks: Marketing Expences as a % of revenue are declining from 6.0% in 2009 to 0.3% in 2015. This is unsustainable and in the long term will lead to market share loss. Below is the comparable data for all the companies WW in Internet Retail Industry with data for Advertising Expense available. Average: 9.8% of revenue. Amazon has 2.4%. Source: Capital IQCompany plans: "Согласно инвестиционной программе «Ютинета», до 70% привлеченного в результате IPO капитала пойдет на продвижение бренда «Ютинет»." (http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2011/07/13/media/562949980627656). How is this ambitions brand promotion plan consistent with decrease in Marketing Expenses as a % of revenue? My adjustment: keep Marketing Expense at 2009 level of 6% 1.3 EBITDAThese two adjustments lead to drastic decrease in EBITDA Forecast.My adjustment: Overall conclusion: watch out for their marketing spending as % of revenue:
2. Comparables Valuation"Отметим, что аналоги из развивающихся стран обладают большим потенциалом роста продаж по сравнению с аналогами из развитых стран (ежегодные темпы роста продаж аналогов развивающихся стран в долларовом выражении в 2011-2015 гг. составляют 35-40%, в развитых странах – 24-28% по сравнению с 89%-м ростом продаж Ютинет.Ру), и оценки на основе их мультипликаторов не отражают перспектив роста, которые мы прогнозируем для Ютинет.Ру."I assume these 24-28% growth forecasts for 2011-15 are average forecasts from many banks while 89% from Finam is an extremely optimistic forecast from one bullish bank motivated to sell shares on the IPO. For many on the discussed companies in emerging markets you can find local "Finam's" who can forecast 89% growth for them. "Мы считаем, что данные Компании за 2011 г. не являются репрезентативными по сравнению с ожиданиями доходов на 2012 г. и далее с учетом экспансии в регионы, выхода в новые товарные категории, поэтому далее оцениваем стоимость Ютинет.Ру по средним прогнозным показателям 2011-2013 EV/EBITDA и P/E." This phrase in bold can be applied to any of the comparables used as they are all fast growing companies. My adjustment: If comparables' multiples are calculated based on 2011F numbers, then Utinet's equity should also be calculated based on 2011F EBITDA and Net Income. New valuation range at Finam's EBITDA forecast: 1.3-2.3b RUR At the same time, if EBITDA forecast from 1. is used, it will be almost impossible to use comparables as EBITDA<0 in 2011 and 2012. 3. DCFThere is one key principle of DCF method which is often misused by starting corporate finance professionals and which Finam clearly ignores in its report: DCF method requires use of market values for:
3.1 WACC – cost of debtFinam assumed 13% for cost of debt. Can Utinet.ru borrow on the open market at 13%? Obviously not and we have facts supporting that. Based on 2010 report Utinet has two external loans from AlfaBank, each at 25% rate and each with a "Related-party collateral and guarantee" which for the question discussed is an external (to the company) guaranty. That means a loan taken on the open market will have even higher rate, if any bank agrees to give it to Utinet.ru.With EBITDA growth borrowing rate will drop, but I don't believe it will drop below 15-20% even in 2015 as the company will still operate in a very competitive and fast-changing environment. My adjustments: cost of debt is 30% in 2011 and decreases to 15% in 2015 3.2 WACC – cost of equityInvestment in Utinet.ru is between investment in a venture (expected return on equity 50%) and a small cap public stock (15%).My adjustment: cost of equity is 30% CAPM could also be applied, though Finam's application of CAPM has two big mistakes:
3.3 WACCFinam used book values for Debt and Equity in their calculation of the share of debt capital.This allowed then to increase share of debt capital which is cheaper in their model and significantly decrease WACC. Real calculation of WACC is circular as E required for WACC and WACC required for E. That's why I would calculate here only approximate WACC, In the assumption that the company costs 1b RUR now, so share of Debt in 2011 is 0.25/1=25% and let's assume that the company will maintain this level of debt. My adjustments: 3.4 Working CapitalPositive change in WC is the biggest source of cash in 2011 and the second biggest in 2012. It mostly comes from growth in Accounts Payables as suppliers give 10 days credit to Utinet.By looking at turnover, the first question is why it's jumping from 20 days in 2010 to 43 in 2011? The other question is how does this 10 days reconcile to 40 days? I don’t know well enough numbers for payment terms between electronic distributors and retailers, but would like to notice that this is very questionable and manipulative assumption to generate big positive cash flow in 2011 and 2012. One reason to explain that may be that to increase gross margin in 2010 the company agreed with suppliers to get bigger discounts and decrease financing from their terms. I would adjust this number close to 2010. My adjustments: Accounts Payable turnover is 25 days in 2011-2015 3.5 Updated Utinet.ru DCFBelow is the model DCF built with all discussed adjustments.Utinet.ru fair value is $1.2b RUB or 62 RUB /share. 4. SummaryFinam did so aggressive valuation for a purpose. Are real numbers so unattractive that it was the only way to attract investors for the IPO? It's hard to know the real story behind but my estimation of negative EBITDA in 2011 and 2012 tells me that Utinet.ru doesn't look attractive to most of public stocks investors.5. Other facts5.1 IPO Russian Sea Group (Русское Море)In April 2010 Finam did IPO of Russian Sea Group (http://www.finam.ru/investments/ipo0000B00075/default.asp). The collapse of Russian Sea stock gives insight about potential behavior of Utinet.ru stock if IPO happens at the announced price range.5.2 What it takes to achieve high growthFinally here is a post from a blog showing how high growth is often achieved:Исайкин Денис Сергеевич 13.10.2009 08:36 Ответить Серёга привет, меня зовут Ден, живу в Южно-Сахалинске, ты такой умный, может подскажешь что делать? Заказал в интернет магазине utinet.ru (ООО ГлавИнформСистема) ноутбук. Прислали модель ту которую заказывал, НО конфигурацию урезанную, которая стоит гораздо дешевле. Переговоры по телефону, а так же переписка по мылу ничего не дали. В ОЗПП сказали написать официальную претензию. Написал на директора Уколова. Вернулось письмо с пометкой, что такой организации по такому адресу не существует. Что делать? Вообще, существует ли справедливость?:( Редиски, обманывают народ и это постоянно сходит им с рук:( http://forum.radiomayak.ru/theme.html?id=287 |
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